2022 Yearling Sales Analysis

Fasig-Tipton July: In analyzing the 2021 yearling sales, our team has made some changes to our recommended parameters for F-T July. We have always felt that yearlings best suited for July are forward, well-developed, with clean x-rays, and by first-year stallions—and if the physical ingredients are there, pedigree and sire are much less important. However, after studying the July (and Saratoga) results in depth, we updated the criteria for realizing optimum results: our research indicates first- and second-year stallions sold substantially better in September. Proven sires work well in July. Yes, conformation and clean vetting are critical in July (due to sale size), but early fillies with pedigree really stand out at this sale. In reviewing the 2021 results, we found the following:

  • Choosing to sell in July reduces carrying costs, carrying risks, and provides early cash flow.
  • You can also realize a significant premium for horses that fit the criteria above.
  • The July Sale yearlings get a second chance in the October Sale which has become a very solid market over the last five years.
  • Limited results for first- and second-year sires.

    Fasig-Tipton Saratoga: Eaton Sales has been the leading seller at Saratoga many times over the last 40 years. Our courtyard, updated again over the winter, gives us a distinct advantage in the presentation of our yearlings.

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    Fasig-Tipton Saratoga: Eaton Sales has been the leading seller at Saratoga many times over the last 40 years. Our courtyard, updated again over the winter, gives us a distinct advantage in the presentation of our yearlings. In analyzing our consignment last year, we presented a consistently above-average group of yearlings, but it was just “above average.” To realize significant premiums in the main Saratoga sale, “above average” just doesn’t cut it anymore. In other words, only physicals in the top 20% of the sale realize the large premiums the Saratoga market is known for. Yearlings with any material flaws in conformation and/or veterinary issues will be penalized more significantly at Saratoga than any other sale. A yearling must have two of three ingredients to sell well at Saratoga:

    • An outstanding physical (a must).
    • A materially clean veterinary report is critical.
    • Strength of sire OR pedigree.

    This may be an oversimplification, but it’s a good rule of thumb to follow. The second two ingredients are both obviously good, but one or the other is sufficient if combined with outstanding conformation. Also, American pedigrees thrive at Saratoga. Because international buyers at Saratoga have been relatively limited over the past five years, we tend to hold our European pedigrees for September. Eaton Sales will be more selective of its Saratoga prospects this year. We will try to select and offer only yearlings that will be in the top 20% physically. Otherwise, or if in doubt, the September or October sales are better options.

    Fasig-Tipton NY Bred: This sale remains very strong for average to above-average NY-bred yearlings. It is the most reliable sale to realize good NY-bred premiums when compared with other sale options.

    Keeneland September: This is the largest and deepest yearling sale in the world and buyers from all over the world attend. The broad-based buyer depth, which evolves through the course of the sale, provides a market for just about every type of yearling. International pedigrees are best sold in this auction. Last year’s September results were primarily strong across the board, with one exception: Book 1. The first two days of “selected” yearlings were again disappointing. In 2021, these “selected” sessions which are meant to include the best of the U.S. commercial yearling crop, resulted in a 34.2% buyback rate, an average of $414,843 and just 11 horses sold for more than $1 million. Of concern though, 70% of Book 1 was bought back or brought $200,000 or less. We will be conferring with Keeneland this spring regarding the Book 1 issue.

    The most important aspect of selling horses during Keeneland September is placement. Never place your yearlings too early! It is always better to be a session too late than a session early. A fundamental of selling yearlings is to sell at the top of any session. The expression “a big fish in a small pond” may be cliché, but nothing is more true when selling Thoroughbreds.

    Finally, the latter sessions have been incredibly solid over the last two years. In 2020, session 5 was the strongest session of the entire sale on a horse-by-horse basis. Last year, the last three sessions proved to be very strong. Also, many sellers tend to scratch their horses if they are cataloged in Books 5 and 6. This leaves the remaining sellers with a distinct supply and demand advantage. So, before you scratch late yearlings to use the October sale as an alternative, think twice.

    Fasig-Tipton October: The October sale continues to provide a very strong alternative for moving yearlings late in the year. While yearlings sold for the first time get a slight advantage, those being reoffered will still find a solid market for legitimate products. Yearlings that are lacking development, immature, or late will get an extra six weeks to grow and develop prior to the October sale. In recent years, we have found that fillies with pedigree really stand out in this sale because their supply is limited and demand is still very high. It is the last chance to shop for this limited category of yearlings. So, if you have a filly with pedigree that is backward, or needing more time, she can truly stand out in this market. Last year, some of these fillies were bringing 30-50% more in October than they might have if sold earlier. Remember, due to the length and pressurized environment of the September sale, a number of buyers who stop shopping in sessions 2, 3, 4 or later are still in need of horses come October.

    Watch this video to learn about yearling sale placement